Read the rules of play
Does a 5% game drop become certain after 20 tries?
The first chance is 5%. Whether a losing card goes back into the bag changes what happens next. Explore twenty attempts to see what “constant” means.
A Yorimichi reading issue 001
Behind a number sit rules, sequences and boundaries. Follow one reading path through games, moving images and the electricity used by AI.
An edited collection that reads three existing articles through one shared question.
The sum of the estimated reading times for the article texts. It excludes this issue page and time spent exploring the diagrams and exhibits.
Make a prediction, then open a comparison
These are calculated examples, adapted from the assumptions in the articles. They are not measurements of a real game or device.
| Rule | Calculated chance |
|---|---|
| Independent 5% each time | 64.2% |
| A guarantee on attempt 20 if still waiting | 100% |
| One winner in 20 cards, without replacement | 100% |
The same first chance can lead to different waits when the rules change.
Independent draws use 1 − 0.95²⁰. Drawing all 20 cards from the bag includes its winner. The guarantee is a defined rule: if the first 19 attempts fail, attempt 20 succeeds.
Fictional rules for the first item only, not a study of a particular game or a live random draw.
Read the rules of the gameA · Six evenly spaced intervals
100/6 ms each × 6 ≈ 16.67 ms × 6
B · Five short intervals, then a long one
10 ms × 5 + 50 ms
Each coloured section is the wait until the next update. Both strips span 100 ms on the same horizontal scale.
Both: 6 updates ÷ 0.1 seconds = an average 60 fps
The same average can include a single, much longer wait.
The longest interval in A is about 16.67 ms; in B it is 50 ms. An average alone hides that difference. Exposure and response to input introduce other conditions.
An arithmetic model of timing, not a measurement or reproduction of this screen’s fps, device performance or visual perception.
Read a second of moving images| Number of identical tasks | Total energy |
|---|---|
| Unchanged count · 100% | 50% |
| Three times the count · 300% | 150% |
Energy per task × number of tasks = total
Half per task but three times as many tasks gives 1.5 times the original total.
0.5 × 1 = 0.5. 0.5 × 3 = 1.5. Greater efficiency and a rising total can occur together.
An explanatory example with a fixed task. It excludes training, cooling and idle consumption, and does not calculate a real AI service’s energy use.
Read the numbers in the newsFrom games to moving images, then to the news
Follow the sequence or begin with the book that catches your eye. Carry one question about numbers from each story to the next.
Read the rules of play
The first chance is 5%. Whether a losing card goes back into the bag changes what happens next. Explore twenty attempts to see what “constant” means.
The next questionFrom “how many” to “at what intervals”: does the same total mean the same journey in between?
Read the timing of an image
An average of 60 fps allows more than one pattern of intervals. Separate frame count, exposure and response to input to look inside a second on screen.
The next questionNow move from one at a time to the whole total. Halving each part does not always halve the sum.
Read the scale of a news story
When the energy needed for the same task halves, what happens to the number of tasks? Read about AI electricity at three scales: per task, overall and local.
An editorial perspective
Does the probability or condition stay the same as the process continues?
Has an average hidden the order of events or their variation?
Are per-task and total quantities, or global and local ones, being treated as the same thing?
These subjects share a way of reading conditions, not one common physical law. When a number catches your eye, take one more step towards the question behind it.
Evidence and the role of this collection
Each article records its evidence, calculation assumptions and source-check dates. The connections and takeaways on this page are editorial suggestions, not new research findings.
The diagrams are original explanatory models. They do not show measured results or the performance of a real service. Assumptions and calculation conditions appear beside each comparison and in the articles.
Editorial and sourcing policy